According to recent KMIS sociological polls, over 80% of Ukrainians unwaveringly believe in Ukraine’s victory against Russia, while only 3% consider the opposite scenario. Yet behind this high level of public confidence lies a complex strategic question: what does “winning the war” actually mean under conditions of total resource disparity, and how can the technology sector alter the course of the confrontation?
The Linear Scenario Trap: Why Returning to 1991 Borders Won’t Stop the Aggressor
In public discourse, the widespread belief is that reclaiming occupied territories and restoring sovereignty to the 1991 borders automatically means the end of the war. However, military analysis shows that de‑occupying territories without destroying the enemy’s offensive potential merely changes the front line’s configuration.
If the Ukrainian Armed Forces reach the state border with Russia, Moscow could launch additional mass mobilisation, fielding an army twice or three times larger, open new axes of attack from the north, and continue systematic missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure.
Likewise, expectations of a rapid internal collapse of Russia or revolutionary changes in the Kremlin appear unlikely at present:
- Geopolitical factor. Western partners fear the disintegration of Russia due to the risk of losing control over its nuclear arsenal.
- Elite consensus. Within Russian society and among ruling clans, consolidation around an imperial course persists, so a change of personnel in the Kremlin does not automatically halt aggression.
The Math of Attrition Warfare: Required Deep Strike Volumes
In a classic war of attrition, the key is the mathematics of damage parity. Given the difference in territory, population size, and density of industrial objects, Ukraine must inflict three to four times more strikes on the enemy’s operational and strategic rear to achieve a mirror effect.
[Aggressor: 100 ballistic + 100 cruise missiles + 10,000 UAV/month]
VS
[Parity Tech‑contour of Ukraine: 400 ballistic + 400 cruise missiles + 40,000 UAV/month]According to Yuri Kasyanov’s assessment, waging a linear war of attrition without proper scaling of a sovereign defence industry will lead to the gradual ruin of Ukrainian infrastructure while the adversary suffers only limited damage.
Asymmetric Response: How to Force the Kremlin to Peace
To escape the deadlock, Ukraine needs a strategy based not on populism or waiting for “ideal conditions,” but on creating palpable, unacceptable risks for Russia’s military‑political elite.
To compel the adversary to peace on terms acceptable to Ukraine, the following steps must be implemented:
- Scaling the long‑range strike contour (Deep Strike). Mass production and deployment of jam‑proof strike UAVs and missiles for systematic destruction of oil‑refining, energy, and military‑industrial infrastructure deep in the enemy’s rear.
- Neutralising the aviation component. Building an effective air‑defence contour by destroying enemy air bases, aviation munitions depots, and deploying long‑range air‑defence/missile‑defence systems.
- Robotising the frontline and short‑range air defence. Widespread introduction of ground robotic complexes (GRC), silent AI‑enabled FPV interceptors, and electronic warfare systems to minimise own personnel losses.
Comparative Matrix of Strategic Scenarios
The table below illustrates key scenarios for ending or progressing the confrontation and their operational implications for the state.
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Xpert Take
The theses voiced by Yuri Kasyanov highlight the main challenge for Ukraine’s domestic defence‑industrial complex and government: without massive implementation of high‑tech solutions, winning a conventional war against a better‑resourced adversary is impossible. Genuine optimism lies not in denying threats, but in sober analysis and the construction of a clear engineering‑production strategy.
Thus, the state’s key priority now is developing the ecosystem of defence innovations, scaling state and private arms manufacturers, and simplifying bureaucratic procedures for the fastest delivery of new developments to the front line.
Stay tuned for the latest technology news and developments in the defence‑industrial complex in the Hi‑Tech section on HiTech Expert.
