Ukrainian military expert in radio technologies and communications Serhii Flash from 18 August 2026 published a military-technical analysis of attempts by the Russian Federation to create a sovereign low-Earth orbit satellite communications grouping — an analogue of the American Starlink system under the name «Rassvet».
The analyst assessed the current pace of space launches, the logistics of enemy rocket production, and the possible consequences for the Russian space program after strikes by Ukrainian long-range rockets «Flamingo» on strategic enterprises of the Russian rocket-space complex.
Deployment Architecture: Carriers ‘Soyuz-2.1b’ and Launch Pads
Project «Rassvet» is a key element of the Kremlin’s programme to provide the Russian army with jam‑resistant satellite communications and data transfer on the front line. To date, all successful launches of these satellites have been carried out from the Plesetsk cosmodrome using the Soyuz-2.1b launch vehicle.
According to Serhii Flash’s assessment, the technical mathematics of deployment looks as follows:
-
Capacity of one launch: one Soyuz-2.1b launch vehicle places 20 «Rassvet» satellites into low Earth orbit;
-
Baseline constellation: to form a minimally viable communications coverage the occupiers need to conduct 12 to 15 successful launches (in total 240–300 spacecraft);
- Alternative launch sites: besides Plesetsk, launching the carriers is theoretically possible from the Baikonur (Kazakhstan) and Vostochny (Amur Region, Russia) launch pads.
Impact of «Flamingo» Rocket Strikes on Soyuz-2.1b Production
A critical vulnerability of the Russian space programme is the high concentration of its manufacturing capacity. Practically all components of the Soyuz-2.1b (except the liquid‑fuel engines) are manufactured at the Samara‑based enterprise RTC «Progress», which recently became a target of Ukrainian cruise missiles «Flamingo».
Although the exact extent of the damage and its impact on the future «Rassvet» launch schedule remains a matter of business intelligence, Flash notes that completely shutting down such a massive industrial facility requires sustained effort. Moreover, part of the already assembled launch vehicles or their stages may be in transit logistics or stored directly at the cosmodrome warehouses.
An exotic alternative for Russia remains the heavy launcher «Angara‑A5», production of which is organised in Omsk at the United Aircraft Corporation «Polyot». This launcher is built in extremely limited series (about one launch per year) and, while it is theoretically capable of placing up to 60 «Rassvet» satellites in a single launch, its availability in a ready‑to‑fly condition remains questionable.
Comparative Matrix of Carriers for «Rassvet» Satellites
| Parameter / Carrier | «Soyuz-2.1b» (Primary Carrier) | «Angara-A5» (Heavy Reserve) |
|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing plant | RTC «Progress» (targeted by «Flamingo» missiles) | UA «Polyot» (Omsk) |
| Number of satellites per launch | 20 «Rassvet» spacecraft | Up to 60 «Rassvet» spacecraft |
| Launch frequency | Serial production (several launches per year) | Extremely rare launches (≈1 per year) |
| Main launch sites | Plesetsk, Baikonur, Vostochny | Plesetsk, Vostochny |
| Logistical vulnerability | Dependence on a single airframe plant in Samara | Complex assembly cycle, limited number of launchers |
Xpert Take
Analysis by Serhii Flash confirms that the Russian analogue of Starlink is turning into yet another critical point in the technological confrontation. The enemy’s attempt to create a sovereign satellite network «Rassvet» founders not so much on assembling the satellites themselves, but on hitting a logistical dead‑end in the rocket production conveyor. Successful strikes on RTC «Progress» using missiles «Flamingo» exemplify an asymmetric Deep Strike doctrine: instead of trying to jam satellites with electronic warfare in orbit, the Ukrainian Armed Forces destroy the launch vehicles directly in their factories.
Systematically depriving the adversary of the ability to deploy space‑based communications deprives its army of resilient command and control, making the creation of a full‑scale jam‑proof command‑and‑control contour for troops impossible.
Stay tuned for the latest news on technology, space systems, and developments in the defence‑industrial complex in the Defense Tech section on hitechexpert.top.
