A group of participants from several U.S. agencies took part in a first-of-its-kind exercise that tested their preparedness for a severe solar storm, revealing serious gaps in scientists’ ability to predict space weather that could jeopardize vital systems.
The Space Weather Operations, Research, and Mitigation (SWORM) Working Group, an interagency group that includes the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), organized a space weather exercise to better understand the U.S. government’s preparedness for an impending solar storm. The results were recently published in a report that highlighted the significant limitations in space weather forecasting.
The exercise took place from May 8-9, 2024, at the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory (APL) in Laurel, Maryland, and at the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) test site in Denver, Colorado. The space weather scenario was broken down into four modules that included a series of solar events that resulted in negative impacts on our systems on Earth and in space. These consequences included radio communications outages, loss of GPS functionality, power outages, intense radiation exposure to astronauts and satellites, and the inability to track and communicate with satellites in orbit.
One of the modules was devoted to the future, and participants were asked to imagine a hypothetical scenario taking place over eight days in January and February 2028. In this scenario, NOAA is tracking an active region on the surface of the Sun that is rotating to a position where it is facing the Earth. The situation is complicated by the fact that a crew of two astronauts is headed to the Moon aboard the Orion spacecraft, while another crew of two is already on the lunar surface as part of the Artemis mission. During the exercise, participants were asked to consider whether their agency or organization has policies or protocols in place to deal with severe weather events in space.
Coincidentally, the largest geomagnetic storm in the last 20 years occurred around the same time as the exercise. On May 10, 2024, the G5 geomagnetic storm, or extreme geomagnetic storm, hit the Earth as a result of large plasma emissions from the Sun’s corona (also known as a coronal mass ejection). The G5 storm caused some devastating effects on the Earth’s electrical grid and spectacular auroras that could be seen across much of the globe. The storm also increased the density of the atmosphere in low Earth orbit by an order of magnitude, which in turn caused atmospheric drag that affected satellites.
Space weather forecasters monitor the Sun’s activity and coronal mass ejections, but these storms are difficult to predict. “We never really know what’s going to happen, what the CME is made of, or what to do with it until it’s 1 million miles from Earth, which is only 15-45 minutes away,” Sean Dahl, a service coordinator at the Space Weather Prediction Center, told Gizmodo earlier. “That’s when we can see what a CME is made of. How strong is it magnetically? What is its speed of movement? Will it connect with the Earth?”
The participants found that the most difficult aspect of space weather forecasting is the inability to predict how a coronal mass ejection will affect the Earth. Scientists can learn about the true impact of a coronal mass ejection about 30 minutes before it occurs, when the magnetic field orientation of the particle cloud becomes apparent.
The report suggests investing in next-generation space weather satellites, as well as developing and deploying more sensors to monitor space weather factors. It also recommends that U.S. agencies collaborate with international partners and the private sector.
“Continued efforts to prepare for space weather are critical because an extreme event could severely impact our nation’s critical infrastructure and threaten our national security,” the report says. “Just as we prepare for earthquakes, hurricanes, and cyberattacks, our nation must take action before a major space weather event occurs.”
