As Los Angeles recovers from the loss of lives and homes in the Easton and Palisades fires, scientists are wondering why the events of January this year were so catastrophic. According to an analysis by the international research initiative World Weather Attribution, climate change most likely played a role in creating the preconditions that led to the numerous fires that swept the region.
“Eight of the eleven models examined also show an increase in extreme January [fire danger index], which strengthens our confidence that climate change is the driving force behind this trend,” the research team concluded.
Currently, the Earth is 1.3°C hotter than it was before the start of the industrial era. The WWA has found that at this temperature, the likelihood of extreme conditions according to the Fire Weather Index in the Los Angeles area increases by 35%. If the global temperature rises by 2.6°C compared to pre-industrial temperatures, extreme conditions will become 35% more likely. Based on current policies, a 2.6°C temperature rise is the minimum increase that the Earth is projected to reach by 2100.
However, the researchers note that the increasing likelihood of these peak conditions is not a linear progression. Other factors have also contributed to the widespread destruction in the Los Angeles area, including a lack of rain; the region has not received significant rainfall since May 2024. This type of drought is 2.4 times more likely to occur at current Earth temperatures than at pre-industrial levels. Santa Ana winds have also caused fires to spread rapidly and make it difficult to localize. The team notes that the impact of wind is not always well reflected in climate models.
The World Weather Attribution is conducting rapid studies of extreme weather events to analyze whether they were influenced by climate change. An international team of researchers aims to study the impact of climate on natural disasters “while the effects of extreme weather events are still fresh in the minds of the public and policy makers and recovery decisions are being made.”
