Market research firm TrendForce has released a report indicating a significant rise in the cost of core components for laptops, projected to impact prices by 2026.
Laptop Component Costs on the Rise
According to a recent post by TrendForce on September 4th, the cost of essential laptop components such as CPUs, DRAM, and SSDs is on an upward trajectory. The firm estimates that by the third quarter of 2026, these core parts will constitute approximately 68% of the Bill of Materials (BOM) cost for a mainstream laptop priced at $900 (USD). This marks a substantial increase from the estimated 45% BOM share in the first quarter of 2025 for similar devices.
This surge in component costs is primarily driven by the increasing prices of memory and CPUs, which are rapidly reshaping the cost structure of laptops. TrendForce’s analysis suggests that if these three key component categories continue to see price hikes quarter over quarter, manufacturers might need to increase the price of their products by as much as 80% by Q3 2026 compared to Q1 2025 prices, simply to maintain the same profit margins.
Global Laptop Shipments Expected to Decline Less Than Predicted
Despite the rising component costs, TrendForce’s report also offers a more optimistic outlook on global laptop shipments for 2026. The firm forecasts a narrower year-on-year decline of 9.4%. This revised projection is attributed to several factors, including the gradual easing of CPU shortages, a consumer tendency towards earlier device upgrades, and stable demand from the business sector.
The report also highlights a potential shift in the traditional seasonal sales pattern for laptops. Historically, the second half of the year has been the peak season for shipments. However, TrendForce predicts that by 2026, this trend may deviate, with a more balanced shipment distribution between the first and second halves of the year, estimated at a 53:47 ratio, respectively. This suggests that shipment volumes might begin to decline from the third quarter onwards, contrary to previous expectations.
The analysis points to a complex market landscape where manufacturers face the dual challenge of potentially increasing component expenses alongside a shifting demand pattern. The rise in prices for CPUs, DRAM, and SSDs is a critical factor that will likely influence pricing strategies and product development in the coming years. Consumers may need to brace for potentially higher prices for new laptops as manufacturers grapple with these escalating costs.
